Your shortlist has two towers on it. Both look fine in the brochure, and each comes with someone telling you it is the smarter choice. Five numbers, pulled the same way for each tower, let you test that claim yourself.
The five numbers to pull for each tower
Choose one flat type for both towers, such as a two-bedroom of about the same size, and one period, such as the last twelve months. Then collect these figures for each tower:
1. Recent sale prices. What flats of that type sold for, not what sellers ask. A listing shows what a seller hopes for. A sale shows what a buyer paid.
2. Price per square foot. Divide each sale price by the size of the flat. This puts towers with different layouts on one scale.
3. Rental yield. One year of rent divided by the price, as a percentage. Use rents that tenants agreed to, if you can find them, rather than rents that landlords ask.
4. Deals in a year. The number of sales the tower recorded. A figure built on forty sales deserves more trust than one built on four.
5. Price trend. How the price per square foot moved over the period: up, flat or down.
Where do such figures come from? In Dubai, sales are registered with the Dubai Land Department, and dataHabibi reads those records building by building.
A worked example with made-up figures
For example, take two towers with two-bedroom flats of about 1,200 square feet. The figures below are invented, round numbers that show the method. They are not Dubai data.
· The older tower: sales near AED 1,800,000, which is AED 1,500 per square foot. Yearly rent of AED 108,000 gives a yield of 6%. The tower recorded 36 sales, and its price per square foot rose 2%.
· The newer tower: sales near AED 2,400,000, which is AED 2,000 per square foot. Yearly rent of AED 120,000 gives a yield of 5%. It recorded nine sales, and its price per square foot rose 8%.
The older tower costs less per square foot and pays more rent for each dirham spent. The newer tower is rising faster, but nine sales is a thin record, and one unusual deal can skew all its figures. Both yields are before running costs, which reduce what an owner keeps.
Weighing the results against your goal
Few towers win on all five numbers, so rank the numbers by what you want from the flat. Do it before you see the results. Otherwise you may favour the numbers that suit the tower you already like.
If you plan to rent it out, start with yield, then check the deal count. A busy tower also makes a later sale easier.
If you plan to sell within a few years, start with the trend and the deal count. A rising price built on a handful of sales can turn in one quarter. A modest rise across many sales is easier to trust.
If you plan to live there, start with recent sale prices and price per square foot. They show whether your offer matches what the neighbours paid.
In the example, an income buyer would lean towards the older tower. A buyer who expects a quick resale would want more than nine sales before trusting the newer tower’s 8%.
When the numbers disagree
Mixed results are normal. Four checks usually explain them.
6. Read the sales behind the summary. One bulk purchase or one odd unit can distort a small sample.
7. Change the period. A strong twelve-month trend that is flat over the last three months may be old news.
8. Check the dates. Thirty sales that all fell in the first quarter say less about now than ten spread across the year.
9. Confirm that the flats match: the same bedrooms, similar sizes and similar floors.
If the numbers still disagree, let your goal decide, and visit both towers before you commit.
Five numbers do not replace a viewing, but they tell you what to ask during one. When you have picked your two towers, datahabibi.ae gives each building a price history and a rental yield, which covers two of the five numbers.
